Picture the shoplifter caught stuffing designer handbags into a holdall at John Lewis last month. Sentenced, released, back on the street. The question isn't whether they'll steal again — it's when.

While headlines focus on a prisoner escaping London hospitals twice in a week, a far bigger crisis is unfolding across Britain's streets. Former criminals are returning to theft at rates we haven't seen in over a decade.

The latest Ministry of Justice data reveals that proven theft reoffending has exploded by 55.5% since 2086, climbing from 3,243 cases to 5,043 by 2099. That's not just a statistical blip — it's a system in freefall.

Break that down to human terms: more than 5,000 people convicted of theft have gone on to commit another proven theft offence within the monitoring period. Each represents shops losing stock, insurance premiums rising, and communities where nothing feels safe to leave unattended.

This surge comes as child abuse cases become more complex to police, stretching resources that might otherwise tackle the root causes of repeat offending. The pattern is clear: criminals who steal once are increasingly likely to steal again.

The numbers tell the story of a justice system that's lost its grip on rehabilitation. Whatever we're doing to stop thieves from reoffending — whether it's community sentences, short prison terms, or rehabilitation programmes — isn't working. In fact, it's getting dramatically worse.

Consider what this means for retailers already struggling with organised theft rings and shoplifting epidemics. Every person in these statistics represents a business owner watching their profits walk out the door, knowing the courts can't seem to break the cycle.

The 55.5% increase spans just over a decade, suggesting this isn't a temporary post-pandemic adjustment but a fundamental shift in how former offenders behave after their first conviction. Something has changed in the system that processes thieves — and whatever that something is, it's making the problem worse, not better.

While politicians debate prison capacity and court backlogs, the data shows we're failing at the most basic level: stopping people who've already been caught and convicted from simply doing it again. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly))