A prisoner escaping from London hospitals twice in a week makes headlines. But the bigger story isn't about who gets out — it's about what happens when they do.

Britain's criminal justice system is failing at its most basic promise: stopping criminals from doing it again. The latest Ministry of Justice data reveals that 48.7% of all offenders now reoffend within a year of their sentence. That's nearly one in every two.

This isn't a recent blip. It's the culmination of decades of decline. In 1943, just 29.1% of criminals reoffended. The rate has surged 67.4% since then — meaning we're now twice as likely to fail at rehabilitation as we were a generation ago.

The contrast is stark. On one hand, politicians tout falling crime rates and tougher sentences. On the other, the data shows our justice system has become a revolving door. Every day, thousands of people complete their sentences — probation, community service, prison time — only to commit fresh crimes within months.

This isn't just about individual failures. It's about system-wide breakdown. When nearly half of all offenders return to crime, something fundamental isn't working. Whether it's inadequate support for ex-offenders, cuts to rehabilitation programmes, or simply longer sentences that fail to address underlying causes, the numbers suggest our approach is backwards.

The implications stretch far beyond the justice system. Those reoffending rates translate into more victims, more police investigations, more court cases, more prison places needed. It's a cycle that costs the taxpayer billions while making communities less safe.

What makes this particularly troubling is the trajectory. This isn't a stable failure rate — it's a worsening one. Each decade since the 1940s has seen the situation deteriorate further. The system that once rehabilitated seven in ten offenders now fails to rehabilitate one in two.

Meanwhile, child abuse cases become more complex and police resources stretch thinner. But if we can't stop known criminals from reoffending, how can we expect to tackle new and emerging crimes effectively?

The prisoner who escaped twice this week will likely be recaptured. The real question is what happens next — and whether Britain can reverse seven decades of decline in criminal rehabilitation.

(Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_annual -- A4b_(annual_average))