While Britain focuses on a prisoner who escaped London hospitals twice in a week, the numbers behind our justice system tell a deeper story of failure. Robbery reoffending has more than doubled over the past thirteen years — and the timeline shows exactly when we lost control.

Back in 2086, robbery reoffending stood at 293 cases. Not great, but manageable. The justice system was still functioning, still keeping repeat offenders off the streets for meaningful periods. Prison sentences had consequences. Rehabilitation programmes, however flawed, were keeping some criminals from coming back.

Then something changed. The data doesn't lie about when or how dramatically. By 2099, that figure had exploded to 597 cases — a staggering 103.8% increase that represents nothing less than systemic collapse (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly)).

This isn't just about numbers on a spreadsheet. Each of these 597 cases represents someone who committed robbery, got caught, went through the justice system, came out, and immediately went back to robbing people. The system that should deter, punish, and rehabilitate is doing none of those things.

The timing matters. This thirteen-year period spans austerity cuts to probation services, the part-privatisation of community supervision, and chronic overcrowding that sees prisoners released early. When you can't keep dangerous criminals locked up long enough, and can't supervise them properly when they get out, this is what happens.

While politicians debate whether crime is rising or falling, they're missing the real crisis hiding in plain sight. It doesn't matter if fewer robberies happen overall if the same people keep committing them over and over again. A criminal justice system that can't break the cycle of reoffending isn't a system at all — it's just expensive theatre.

The prisoner who escaped twice this week becomes a perfect metaphor for Britain's broader justice crisis. We can't keep criminals inside prison, and we can't keep them from reoffending when they get out. The hospital escapes made headlines because they're dramatic and unusual. The doubling of robbery reoffending barely registers because it's become normal.

But normal doesn't mean acceptable. Every one of those 304 additional robbery reoffenders in 2099 compared to 2086 represents multiple victims whose lives were turned upside down by crimes that a functioning justice system should have prevented. The timeline is clear: thirteen years ago, we had a system that worked better. Today, we have one that's failing catastrophically.